Frontier
Horizons
We research the long-horizon shifts — in technology, people, markets and physical systems — that will reshape global commerce over the next decade and beyond.
Four horizons. A more complete picture.
We explore change across four time horizons, from near-term innovation to long-horizon transformation, to understand how today's decisions shape tomorrow's opportunities.
Buildable Frontier
0–3 yearsEmpirical, benchmarkable and deployable research such as evaluation science, human-controlled agents, trust infrastructure, country-native intelligence and physical evidence.
Emerging Infrastructure
3–10 yearsPlatforms, standards and longitudinal systems such as economic world models, programmable finance, physical commerce devices and federated commerce infrastructure.
Strategic Frontier
10–25 yearsPre-consensus systems research such as machine-speed markets, autonomous institutions, trusted economic compute and new market structures.
Civilization Horizon
25+ yearsSpeculative but falsifiable questions around planetary coordination, off-Earth commerce, new economic primitives and institutions beyond today's platform model.
Exploring what shapes tomorrow.
Intelligent commerce systems
How AI, data and automation reshape global trade, markets and value chains.
Explore this themeResilient global infrastructure
More adaptive, secure and sustainable physical and digital infrastructure.
Explore this themePeople, work and inclusive growth
How human and machine intelligence can expand opportunity worldwide.
Explore this themeSustainable and regenerative commerce
Pathways to a lower-carbon, more circular and nature-positive global economy.
Explore this themeLong-horizon research for real-world impact.
We look beyond the next quarter to understand the forces that will shape global commerce in a more complex, interconnected world.
Our approachAnticipate change
Identify early signals and emerging opportunities.
Connect perspectives
Bring together insights across people, markets, technology and physical systems.
Inform decisions
Equip organisations with evidence to navigate uncertainty.
Enable a better future
Support a more open, resilient and prosperous global economy.
Bigger questions. Broader perspectives.
Examples of the long-horizon questions we are exploring.
How will AI agents reshape global trade over the next decade?
Explore this questionWhat infrastructure is needed for a more resilient and inclusive global economy?
Explore this questionHow can human and machine intelligence create more opportunity for more people?
Explore this questionWhat role can commerce play in a more sustainable and nature-positive world?
Explore this questionShape what comes next.
We work with researchers, industry, governments and other organisations to explore frontier questions and turn insight into real-world progress.